This week, we are going to wrap up looking at the two books about the Fourth Turning. One subscriber noted about last week’s post, that these types of generalities cannot be proven or unproven and I agree totally. The reason I shared this work was the same reason I covered an earlier book that focused on cycles. We often get caught up as seeing history as linear and when we are in a time like this where things seem to be going backwards, the frame that allows us a more cyclical view of history is helpful. At least, it helps me.
Now we get into the real danger territory and that is around predictions. But we can verify some of them from the first book (1997). At the time, Strauss and Howe suggested that there will be a clear winner and a new regime. But I don’t see that happening unless our current polarization changes dramatically. They say the next infrastructure grid will be laid out and spending will migrate to more survival focused items and less on past promises. This did seem to be the focus on Biden’s infrastructure plans but only time will tell if anything is actually built or if the current administration will continue to destroy rather than build.
Business and government will become simpler and more centralized. Americans will demand to not be burdened by choice. They will want to simplify daily life with more standardization including one dominant party. Institutions will limit personal freedom. Is this the Christian theocracy that some on the Right want to impose? They say that criminal justice will be swift and rough, trampling on innocents. Vagrants will be rounded up, the mentally ill committed, executions hastened. This prediction seems a little too close to home. Public mood matters. As Alexis de Tocqueville observed, a popular consensus in a democratic republic exerts a compulsive power that absolute monarchs can only dream about. But for now, I would maintain that there is no popular consensus. The country remains deeply divided.
In Howe’s 2023 book he reminds us that the last crisis ended in 1946 and the awakening climax in 1980. So that leaves 50 years until the climax of the current crisis which he predicts will be around 2030. This is the average length except for the Civil War time span that only lasted 33 years. Why was that one so short? One possible reason is that the three adult generations alive at the time let their worst instincts prevail. So it did not end well, it did not unify society and strengthen national political institutions. No one was able to rise above and moral confusion continued. Currently, we also have three different generations exerting influence.
Howe says that progress is not the purpose of the cycle. “If it has a purpose, it is to push a society that always anticipates something better into phases of creative self-adjustment where it must, from time to time, confront something worse. It is to steer a people resolved to avoid cycles into participating in a cycle that will spare it from dissolution or stasis and therefore long-term social death. It contributes to progress only to the extent that it keeps society alive and adaptive. It resembles natural evolution. It may or may not make us better but it fosters our survival.”
“The cycle depends on the functioning of social systems and human psychology at every level of aggregation. It is linked to the dynamics of family life, friendship networks, social and political institutions and ancestral moral reasoning. It is also linked to the biology of human development and reproduction and possibly to hormonal or epigenetic rhythms within human physiology that have not yet been investigated. All mammalian species exhibit multi-year cycles of population expansion and contraction. Most of these cycles appear unrelated to climate, predators, or anything else.”
Howe suggests that geographical polarization promotes conspiracy thinking. If a Trump voter in 2020 does not personally know even a single Biden voter, you might understand how they wonder how Biden could have won. The likelihood of being an election denier is increased based on how large a share of his congressional district voted for Trump. I never thought of it that way.
The divide is more than just political and geographical, it is about core loyalties, social habits and life goals. Howe says that the blue zones are wealthier, more professional, more mobile, more diverse. The red zone is more church going, more charitable, more family oriented, more rooted, more violent, less bureaucratic.
What he predicts next is quite interesting. He references Barbara Walters, who I featured in two posts from February 2023. She says we are a factionalized anocracy that is approaching open insurgency and closer to civil war that we like to think. Any new social stressor could push us over the edge. It could result in two rival regimes. It could start with an impeachment, a contested election, a Supreme Court decision, a complete breakdown of Congress, or at the bottom with states refusing to to comply with federal rules and setting their own social, economic, immigration or environmental policies. Whatever the trigger, the conflict would gain momentum through a series of standoffs, ultimatums, and shows of force. It would likely escalate into large-scale organized violence. All of these things are happening to some degree but I am still optimistic we can avoid a civil war.
It was just two years ago when he warned, “The national government could split into two. Every federal institution would split in two according to personal loyalties. Many people would have to choose sides overnight. Families and communities would be broken, panic and confusion would be widespread. As leaders issue emergency decrees, households would have to cash out their investments and fortify their own local supply chains to the necessities of life. The markets would plunge. It would require the US to stand down from its military obligations. One side might request the assistance of foreign powers. It could also result in a global implosion as US power leaves, creating a vacuum.”
Here are some more of his thoughts from 2023: Boomers pioneered the postmodern ideas of relative truth. He says Trump was the first postmodern president. After the crisis, everything will be on the table. A case can be made for taxing consumption and assets along with inheritance tax since that draws the most out of the affluent elderly brackets. Rationing of high-end luxury goods may be instituted if not already driven into the shadows by social stigma. Stricter tax compliance measures will flush out assets from the Boomer tax havens. Surging inflation during the crisis climax may be welcomed as a means of devaluing fixed-income debt. Governments and debtors will benefit the most. Creditors will be penalized the most.
Once the crisis moves into the consolidation phase during the late 2020s, the emergence of a “boomer gray champion” who may be unknown today will be a necessity. Boomer or not, this figure will galvanize the nation.
What do you think? At this point, I see pieces of the future but I am not so sure about this overall prediction. Things are happening so rapidly. What seems most likely to me is that in the short run, we are headed toward simply becoming a poorer and more corrupt dysfunctional nation. I hope not but it is hard to see how we recover from where we are today. My favorite takeaway from this book is just the reminder that these periods are part of the the trajectory of history and as uncomfortable as it is to live through it, there really is no alternative to complete avoidance and finding the least dangerous way through must be the primary goal.
One of the challenges of your writing is your wide-range of authors.
I often find it necessary to do background research and watch videos
clips to fill in the gaps.
Your conclusions aren't written in stone, and I enjoy being a part of the conversation.
Let's hope subscribers join in the discussion!